2025 NFL schedule: Analysts predict the New Orleans Saints' record

The New Orleans Saints haven't been in straits this dire in quite some time. Fresh off their first five-win season in decades with a new head coach and quarterback finding their way, expectations are lower for the Saints right now than they've been in some fans' lifetimes.

Maybe that means the Saints can shock some people and fly under the radar until they're ready for prime time. Maybe it means fans are in for a really rough season. The team's core remains intact, but that same core hasn't reached the playoffs since Drew Brees retired. Their 2025 schedule is loaded with tough matchups, and they'll need to work against a very slim margin for error to get where they want to go this season.

And many NFL analysts don't see them going the distance. Most expectations have the Saints losing 10 or more games in 2025. Just check the expert predictions.

Saints Wire's John Sigler: 6-11

The Saints will start 2025 with three straight games with NFC West teams and a tough two-week road trip taking them coast-to-coast from matchups with the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills. It all leads up to a climactic season finale with the Atlanta Falcons in Week 18.

So will the Saints be better in 2025 than they were in 2024? Kellen Moore replaces Dennis Allen at head coach, and Brandon Staley replaces Allen as the defensive play caller. Derek Carr won't be the quarterback. Oddsmakers are low on the team whether or not rookie draft pick Tyler Shough starts at QB. Can they beat those expectations?

Bleacher Report's Moe Moton: 3-14

The New Orleans Saints hired Kellen Moore to fill their head coaching vacancy, and he may have a bright future as an offensive-minded lead skipper, but his team has the league's most uncertain quarterback situation.

Quarterback Derek Carr announced his retirement after going through medical scans that revealed significant degenerative changes to his rotator cuff.

Moore told reporters the team will have an open competition for the starting position.

Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener struggled as spot starters last season. New Orleans selected them on Day 3 of the two previous drafts.

This year, the Saints selected Tyler Shough in the second round of the draft. He spent seven years in college but only started in one full season because of a constant battle with injuries.

With this crop of signal-callers, Moore will likely rely on the ground attack to establish an offensive rhythm and take pressure off one of his inexperienced passers.

Running back Alvin Kamara has more optimal years left, and Kendre Miller can complement him if he can stay healthy. Rookie sixth-rounder Devin Neal is a 5'11", 213-pound tailback who can run and catch out of the backfield. The Kansas product could emerge as a three-down contributor.

The Saints defense may face a ton of pressure to keep scores low for a chance to win games, which is a tough ask for an entire season. 

New Orleans is a strong candidate to finish with the league's worst record.

FOX Sports' Greg Auman: 4-13

The Saints took a big step back last year, with a 5-12 record that was their worst in 20 years, since before Drew Brees got to town. Can new head coach Kellen Moore get to that same record with a rookie quarterback and continued questions on defense? The Saints went 0-7 without Derek Carr last year, and now that he has retired, they’ll be putting a lot on second-round pick Tyler Shough. No rookie age 25 or older has ever thrown for more than 14 touchdown passes in his first year. If New Orleans can get top receivers Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed to stay healthy, that’s within Shough's reach. Demario Davis and Cam Jordan will be 36 this season, so how much do they have left? The schedule hooks the Saints up with the Titans, Jets and Giants — sweep those three and split with the Falcons and Panthers and they're already to five wins and beating these expectations.

ESPN's Katherine Terrell:

The Saints will win their season opener ... but lose the next three. The Saints will figure out how to get off on a good note, similar to last year, and extend their NFL-best home-opening win streak to seven games. But the positive momentum won't last long, as a Week 2 game against the 49ers, who are also looking to bounce back from a difficult season, and lengthy road trips will stall their momentum. The first month won't be easy for the Saints with a new head coach, an aging defense and no veteran quarterback to fall back on.

Pro Football Network: 5-12

The Saints are in a weird place as indicated below and as such, our PFSN FPM gives them just a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 14.2% chance of earning the No. 1 overall pick.

The New Orleans Saints are stuck in a cycle that’s hard to escape. They have an aging offense and a declining defense — a combination that typically requires a full rebuild. Their Defense+ grade dropped from 84.8 in 2023 to 71.6 in 2024, which ranked 19th. However, the real reason they ranked so low in the first place was because of their uncertain quarterback situation.

With Derek Carr’s sudden retirement, this team could be non-competitive. New Orleans went 0-7 in Carr’s absence last year, averaging 13.3 points per game with a -17.6 PPG differential. Second-round rookie Tyler Shough may be more experienced than most rookies, but his lack of mobility could hurt behind a line that ranked 23rd in PFSN’s metrics last year.

Whoever’s playing under center would benefit from better skill-position health, as Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both suffered season-ending injuries in 2024.

Even if that’s the case, though, the Saints once again look like a team stuck in NFL purgatory, albeit with a much lower floor than in past seasons.

This article originally appeared on Saints Wire: 2025 NFL schedule: Analysts predict double-digit losses for Saints