Patriots-Broncos Preview Capsule: Top prop players to watch

The New England Patriots visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, with the winner headed to Santa Clara to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Much has been made about Denver losing starting quarterback Bo Nix to a broken ankle at the end of last week's game against the Buffalo Bills, but it's been the Broncos' defense that has headlined their campaign.

Denver ranked No. 3 in the NFL with a scoring defense that held teams to 18.3 points per game.

The Broncos could have their hands full with the Patriots, who finished the regular season ranked second in scoring with 28.8 points per game.

The Patriots are 11-5 in Conference Championship games, tied with the Green Bay Packers (11) for the most in NFL history. The Broncos, meanwhile, are 8-2 (.800) in their previous 10 Conference Championship appearances, the highest winning percentage in championship games all-time.

Here's a quick glance at Sunday's game:

TV: CBS

LAST TIME OUT: New England defeated Houston 28-16 on Jan. 18; Denver defeated Buffalo 33-30 in overtime on Jan. 17.

LAST MEETING: Patriots won at Denver, 26-23, on Dec. 24, 2023

VEGAS LINE (courtesy Westgate, as of Wednesday): -4.5, -108, O/U 42.5

BETTING TRENDS: New England arrives in Denver riding five-game win streaks, both SU and ATS. For the season, the Patriots are 11-6 ATS while 11 of their 17 games - including 10 of their last 14 - have gone over the posted total. Denver has won three straight and 14 of its last 15 SU, but it's failed to cover four of its last seven. Five of Denver's last seven have gone over.

PATRIOTS KEY PLAYERS: Quarterback Drake Maye passed for 179 yards and 3 touchdowns for a 100.7 passer rating last week against Houston. Maye is aiming for his third straight 3rd in the playoffs with at least one TD pass. Maye led the NFL with a 113.5 rating and ranked third with a career-high 31 TD passes and was fourth with a career-high 4,394 pass yards during the regular season. ... Running back Rhamondre Stevenson led the team with 70 yards rushing against the Texans. He's aiming for his third straight with 80 or more scrimmage yards. He registered a career-high nine scrimmage TDs this season. ... Running back TreVeyon Henderson ranked second among rookies with 911 yards rushing and 1,132 scrimmage yards during the regular season. ... Wide receiver Stefon Diggs had a TD catch last week to become the seventh player in NFL history with a playoff TD catch with three different teams. ... Tight end Hunter Henry had a career-high 768 yards receiving and had seven TD catches this season.

PROP TO WATCH: Maye over 31 yards rushing (-115)

The Broncos are going to keep the pressure on the rookie quarterback, so it's expected to see Maye on the run. Last week, he ran for 10 yards, but the week before, against another AFC West opponent, he rushed for 66 yards against the Chargers. In 17 regular-season games, he averaged 26.4 yards rushing per game. It's conceivable that 10 yards should be added to that tally, considering Denver's suffocating stop unit.

BRONCOS KEY PLAYERS: Quarterback Jarrett Stidham is expected to make his first career playoff start and fifth all-time career start. Stidham has 1,422 yards passing and eight TDs in his career. ... Running back RJ Harvey turned in 66 scrimmage yards last week, his first career playoff game. Harvey led rookies with 12 scrimmage TDs during the regular season. He has a TD in five of his past six games. ... Wide receiver Courtland Sutton had 53 yards receiving last week and now aims for his third in a row with 50 or more yards receiving in the postseason. Sutton led the team in receptions (74) and receiving yards (1,017) during the regular season. ... Wide receiver Marvin Mims led the team with eight receptions for 93 yards and had a TD catch last week, his first career playoff TD.

PROP TO WATCH: Sutton anytime TD (+275)

Sutton didn't score last week against Buffalo, and was held without a score the last two regular season games. But he had scores the two previous games and three of the previous four. Thing is, with the pressure the Patriots will bring in this one, Stidham needs someone he can count on when turning the game vertical, and it's imperative to know he has a very strong arm. He can heave it, and Sutton has the hands to retrieve it.