The Lions likely just lost the NFC North crown. Is their Super Bowl window already going with it?
For a team that was supposed to be built to last, this is an alarming amount of slippage in less than two years.
Just 22 months ago, this Detroit Lions’ Super Bowl window was supposed to be built to last.
The franchise was dramatically sweeping into the NFC title game against the San Francisco 49ers, riding a wave of momentum that it hadn’t known for decades — if not longer. Quarterback Jared Goff was just entering the middle of his prime years. The offensive line was among the best in the NFL, with two young anchors in right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow. The draft classes were yielding high-end talent like defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, tight end Sam LaPorta and linebacker Jack Campbell. And the culture? It had more green flags than a St. Patrick’s Day parade.
Perhaps most importantly, almost everything was pulling toward Detroit inside an NFC North that seemed ripe for sustained domination coming out of the 2023 season. Both the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings didn’t have a long-term answer at quarterback. And while the Green Bay Packers had Jordan Love, he’d had essentially only a half season of high-end success. Who knew if he could sustain it? And more to the point, who knew if the Packers could build around him enough to match the Lions’ offense, which was fast becoming an elite juggernaut. Surely, it would take years for Green Bay to catch up and threaten what the Lions were building.
Less than two, it turns out.
In just that very little expanse, the Packers have positioned themselves to take the NFC North back from the Lions, sweeping Detroit 2-0 in the season series (including Thursday’s 31-24 Thanksgiving Day home loss) and tipping the balance of power back in Green Bay’s direction. All the Packers have to do now is chase down the 8-3 Bears, who are a half game ahead of Green Bay in the division race but still have to face the Packers twice down the regular-season stretch. It’s a reality that should hit home like a double-whammy for Lions fans: Not only have the Packers risen quickly with Love at quarterback, the Bears have been instantly resurrected under Detroit’s former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, whose absence on the Lions‘ staff is suddenly feeling glaring.
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Now it’s suddenly fair to ponder several things about this Lions team. First is how Detroit will respond to a division that has taken leaps forward since that 2023 season. The Bears have aligned a quarterback and head coach. The Packers have balanced out their team with both a good offense and a defense that has a chance to eventually be elite. And the Vikings are one quarterback resolution away from being the team that went 14-3 in 2024. That whole wide-open door to dominating the NFC North for years to come feels like it has already slammed shut. It leads to the other debate, which is whether Detroit’s Super Bowl widow has slammed shut, too.
At first glance, the answer would seem to be no. Much of the young core stars of the Lions are on long-term deals, and there is still a lot of ceiling left for the past three draft classes to grow. But the Lions’ offense has not been quite the same since losing Johnson, or at the very least it hasn’t been quite as consistent or creative. Meanwhile, the defense continues to break down in befuddling ways. Surrendering 31 points to the Packers on Thursday despite being mostly healthy — really missing only safety Kerby Joseph — is not a good sign. Especially when the defensive line produced some pressure but also zero sacks.
Now take the unevenness of the offense and defense and step back to look at the wider vantage. When Detroit lost in the 2023 season’s NFC title game to the 49ers, the thought process was the Lions had the talent and coaching to run it back in the next few seasons. Then 2024 descended into a monumental disappointment when Detroit went 15-2 and grabbed the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, only to flop horrifically against the Washington Commanders and then-rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels in a 45-31 home defeat in last January’s divisional round. Now flash forward to Thursday, and the 7-5 Lions are suddenly fighting for their playoff lives. Not for a Super Bowl window. Not for a third straight NFC North title. But just to grab on to the last wild-card seed over the next five games. For a team that was supposed to be built to last, that’s an alarming amount of slippage in less than two years.
There’s a lot that has gone into this, of course. But you can begin with Johnson’s departure in the offseason, which has left the offense hiccuping with play-calling issues. First it was with Johnson’s replacement, John Morton, who struggled to get Jameson Williams and David Montgomery more involved in the scheme. Now it’s with head coach Dan Campbell, who has taken over play calling and showcased some less-than-stellar moments in game management. That included a late fourth quarter stretch against the Packers, when the Lions inexplicably devoured the clock on a late drive that resulted in a field goal — pulling Detroit within 31-24 — but left only 2:59 after kicking off. With only two timeouts and the two-minute warning left, the Packers needed only one first down to ice the game. Which they got.
But even with that result, it’s fair to consider that the Lions scored 24 points despite All-Pro wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown going down in the first quarter. Not to mention that tight ends Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright missed the game with injuries, and that Detroit was starting backups at center and left guard. Given those injuries and some game management schisms, it wasn’t exactly the offense that was the problem.
The defense, on the other hand, continues to be worrisome in spots. Last week it had its hands full against New York Giants and third-string quarterback Jameis Winston at the helm. This week it was Love, and a band of receivers that continues to lack a true No. 1 pass catcher. Detroit’s defensive front couldn’t finish sacks, and the secondary had breakdowns at key moments. That included with presumptive No. 1 cornerback D.J. Reed, who returned from injury in Week 12 against the Giants, but continued to look rusty against the Packers.
For now, that’s the micro that Campbell will focus on. Fixing a player, a play call, a decision — then hoping that will translate into Detroit’s turnaround one game at a time. But the climb is going to be steep, beginning with a surging Dallas Cowboys team next week, then a road game against the Los Angeles Rams (who currently hold the No. 1 playoff seed in the NFC) then a matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are also fighting for their playoff lives. Inside that stretch, the balance of Detroit’s playoff hopes will likely be decided.
As Campbell put it after the loss to the Packers, “We dug ourselves a little bit of a hole. That’s the bottom line. We are in a little bit of a hole. But that’s just what it is. There’s nothing more than that.”
Time will tell if that’s simply the reality of Detroit’s 2025 season, or something much, much bigger.
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