Trump's midterm road show reveals GOP troubles — and his own priorities

President Donald Trump’s whirlwind travel itinerary this month reflects a careful calculation as Republicans brace for midterm losses: where he can mobilize his most devoted supporters, where his low approval ratings make him a liability and where he can simply have a good time.

His packed agenda reflects political strategy, travel logistics and the reality that the president - despite being far more active on the campaign trail than his predecessor - is an 80-year-old man with a country to run, people around him say. Trump insists on signing off on the list of places he is visiting each week, according to two people with knowledge of the process.

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Trump has publicly floated a visit to Maine, where GOP Sen. Susan Collins is in a tight reelection fight, but White House and outside advisers to the president say such a trip is highly unlikely. Two people involved in planning his schedule said there are no trips scheduled to Maine or New Hampshire.

Last week’s stops included deep-red Nebraska, where the Senate race is closer than once expected; Texas, for the second time in seven days; Upstate New York, to stump for his friend, gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman, who trails by double digits in many polls; and Tennessee, for a rally near a military base.

While in Syracuse, New York, Trump brought former professional boxer Mike Tyson onto the stage to speak.

Bad weather forced him to cancel a trip to Alabama for a college football game, which would have been his second visit to the state in just over a week. Football games are more fun for him than rallies, said one Trump adviser, who like others working on the president’s midterm strategy, was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

But the rallies - now often held in smaller venues than in years past - still serve as an escape for Trump as he presides over an unpopular war and faces his lowest approval ratings in office. When he traveled to Oklahoma earlier this month, he said he was doing so “to thank them” for supporting him.

In Clarksville, Tennessee, Trump said giving frequent speeches is “easy” because “there’s such love in these rooms.”

“It’s amazing when you stand up here. It’s just, like, the love,” he told the crowd. “I could say the stupidest things and you clap.”

“It’s the last time he’s really going to be able to do this in full force,” said Mark Mitchell, a politically independent pollster who previously supported Trump but is now critical of many of his policies. “A 30-day blitz of the country to do these rallies again when he’s the most unpopular president - it just doesn’t really make sense.”

Trump has at times been in high spirits while traveling and said he thinks campaigning is going well, one adviser said. But another person with knowledge of his behavior observed that Trump has been in a “foul mood.”

Trump’s advisers maintain that the rallies are the most effective thing Trump can do - short of lowering gas prices driven up by the war he started with Iran - to try to minimize Republican losses this fall. GOP officials say Trump showing up in the backyard of supporters who voted for him three times is the party’s best chance to turn out those voters this fall when he isn’t on the ballot. Republican enthusiasm is trailing that of Democrats. A recent survey by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center found that among those who say they are extremely motivated to vote, Democrats lead 59 percent to 35 percent. That’s a contrast with the 2022 midterms, when such extremely motivated voters were evenly divided between the two parties.

Supporters who sign up to attend the rallies submit their contact information to Trump’s political operation, which follows up with communications urging them to vote. Many of Trump’s supporters aren’t accustomed to voting in midterms or need to be reminded there’s an election this year, another adviser said, and all attention helps - especially in an election cycle where Democrats are highly mobilized.

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, political director Matt Brasseaux and former White House deputy chief of staff James Blair - now working as an outside adviser with Trump’s political operation - have worked together to decide where Trump can be most useful, according to a person with knowledge of the process.

Determining where Trump can help has been trickier in House races than in Senate contests, several of which are competitive in states Trump easily won, the person said. Some House races are so tight that Republicans worry an unpopular Trump could hurt their efforts, while statewide races can more easily benefit from the president helping boost turnout in conservative enclaves.

This week, Trump is scheduled to visit Youngstown, Ohio, where the GOP under Trump has made significant gains; Wasilla, Alaska, a Republican stronghold north of Anchorage; and the heavily conservative areas of Bullhead City, Arizona, and Kalispell, Montana.

“There is no safer space for Donald Trump to go in Arizona than Mohave County, which is full of disaffected former Californians and conspiracy theorists and ‘Don’t tread on me’ types,” said Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist in the state, referring to the county Trump is scheduled to visit Wednesday.

Going to heavily Republican areas such as Bullhead City - or deeply red states such as Oklahoma, Alabama and Tennessee, as Trump has done in the last week and a half - is all but guaranteed to draw a friendly crowd, while still generating coverage in surrounding media markets and the national press, advisers say.

Bullhead City is on the Arizona-Nevada border, and Trump’s appearance there could help mobilize Republican voters in Nevada, where GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo has only a narrow lead over his opponent. Rep. Elijah Crane (R) also faces a competitive race in Arizona’s neighboring 2nd Congressional District.

Some choices are less strategic.

New York conservative talk radio host Bob Lonsberry urged Trump to cancel Friday’s trip to Syracuse, fearing it would harm the candidate’s chances. “Stay away, Mr. President,” he wrote on social media. “The last thing Bruce Blakeman needs is a visit from you.”

Other officials maintained that all provide some advantage, even if it is for a House race elsewhere in the state from where Trump is visiting, or a statewide race just over the border. The president combines political strategy with his personal preferences, such as accepting requests to campaign for friends such as Blakeman and Mike Mazzei, the GOP gubernatorial nominee in Oklahoma.

Since Labor Day, Trump has made 14 stops in other states, not including visits to his golf clubs in New Jersey and Virginia. Of those, two were presidential battlegrounds in the last decade.

In addition to political considerations, the president’s team faces logistical challenges in finding large and secure venues in rural places. He does not like to stay overnight except at his own properties, such as his hotel in Las Vegas.

Three people with knowledge of the schedule said Trump’s stop in Tennessee was something of a placeholder - a rally planned around the main attraction for him that day, the Alabama-Georgia football game in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, which he ultimately did not attend because of Hurricane Isaias. The White House chose the location after Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s team had for months recommended it, given its proximity to Fort Campbell, home of the 101st Airborne Division, and the area’s population growth.

Blackburn, now the GOP nominee for Tennessee governor, is working to maximize GOP turnout as an independent candidate threatens to lower her margins, but the longtime elected official is not seen as being at risk of losing her race. GOP strategists hope Trump’s stop there also boosts Republican congressional candidates running in seats redrawn this year by the state legislature.

Two people involved in planning his schedule said there are no trips scheduled to Maine or New Hampshire. Trump is still scheduled to visit Michigan, a state whose Senate race he’s been vocal about, but early voting and other data could change that plan, one of his advisers said.

Wherever the itinerary takes him, some of Trump’s most devoted fans are willing to follow. Blake Marnell, the longtime Trump rally-goer known online as “Brick Suit,” has been driving through the night, sometimes for 14 hours, to make it to almost all the rallies this month.

In Durant, Oklahoma, supporters stood outside for hours in ponchos as a storm moved through the region on the day of Trump’s rally - which started two hours late due to weather delays.

In San Antonio, supporters lined up before dawn for his evening rally on Wednesday. One man told a KENS5 reporter he had driven nine hours to be there.

“I just love Trump. That’s why I came this week,” the man told the television reporter. “I didn’t have nothing better to do anyway.”

Beside him, another man who arrived before sunrise observed that he was used to seeing longer lines. “I’m surprised we’re still pretty empty right now,” he said.

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