A tropical storm may be developing in the Gulf. Models don't rule out U.S. impacts.

The Atlantic Ocean hasn’t seen a hurricane yet this year in a season that remains among the quietest on record, driven by a strong El Niño pattern that’s getting even stronger. But the Gulf of Mexico may be about to cook up a storm, and there’s at least some chance of U.S. impacts.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a nascent disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, or southwestern Gulf of Mexico, west of the Yucatán Peninsula. The agency estimates development odds at 70 percent, with weather models — including Google’s DeepMind — indicating increasing chances.

Infrared satellite imagery Sunday night revealed a flare-up of thunderstorm activity. The tropical wave was still disorganized, though, and lacked any cohesive spin or a center. For now, it’s merely a disturbance.

However, it’s possible that spin will consolidate in the coming days, becoming a more organized system. Some of that spin is caused by northerly winds being funneled down Mexico’s Sierra Madre Occidental mountain range; there, they meet southeasterly winds from the Caribbean. Like an atmospheric waterwheel plopped in between opposing currents, this makes the fluid spin.

The American GFS model simulates a tropical depression forming by Wednesday, though the European model depicts more gradual development. Still, it bears watching, given water temperatures in the Bay of Campeche are between 85 and 87 degrees.

If the American model prevails and hypothetical development ensues faster, the system could be tugged northeastward. It would hitch a ride with an approaching upper-air disturbance, probably being slowly pulled northeast toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Alternatively, broad clockwise flow in the upper atmosphere may push it west into coastal Tamaulipas or Veracruz, Mexico.

There’s still a chance the system never comes together and remains a messy clump of showers.

Even if the disturbance does become a hurricane and head toward the United States, it probably wouldn’t be able to strengthen beyond a high-end Category 1 or borderline Category 2. Why? The subtropical jet stream is slicing across the southern U.S., introducing disruptive wind shear, or changing winds with height.

That means any system would be knocked off-kilter and left a bit disheveled, weakening before it could make a U.S. Gulf landfall.

So for now, Gulf residents should simply keep half an eye on the forecast. There’s nothing to worry about yet. Meteorologists will have a clearer picture by Wednesday.